From Black Gold to Blue Gold: The Rising Tide of Water Conflicts

In the 20th century, oil—often dubbed "black gold"—was the linchpin of global conflicts and geopolitical strategies. However, as we navigate the 21st century, a new contender has emerged: water, or "blue gold." With escalating climate change, burgeoning populations, and unsustainable consumption patterns, water scarcity is increasingly at the heart of international tensions and conflicts. The recent suspension by India of the Indus Waters Treaty following deadly clashes in Kashmir highlights how water resources are becoming critical flashpoints in international relations.

The Shift from Oil to Water

Historically, control over oil reserves has significantly driven conflicts, influencing foreign policies and military interventions. Yet, as renewable energy sources gain prominence and global consciousness around environmental issues increases, the strategic importance of oil is gradually diminishing. Conversely, water—a resource essential for life, agriculture, and industry—is becoming scarcer, elevating its geopolitical value.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) exemplifies this shift. Countries like Jordan, Syria, and Iraq have long faced water shortages, further exacerbated by recent developments. Turkey’s ambitious dam construction on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers has reduced water flows downstream, heightening tensions with neighbouring nations.

Water Conflicts Around the World

The Nile Basin Dispute

The Nile River, crossing 11 countries, remains a contentious area, especially between Egypt and Ethiopia. Egypt, reliant on the Nile for freshwater, sees Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as a threat. Ethiopia views the dam as critical to its development, resulting in diplomatic stalemates and heightened tensions.

The Jordan River Basin

The Jordan River, shared by Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories, has long been a source of disputes. Water scarcity here is intensified by complex political dynamics, making equitable water distribution challenging. Broader geopolitical conflicts further complicate resource-sharing efforts.

The Mekong River Challenges

In Southeast Asia, the Mekong River flows through China, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. China’s dam construction has altered water flow, disrupting agriculture and fisheries downstream. These unilateral actions have prompted demands for cooperative regional water management.

The India-Pakistan Water Conflict

In April 2025, following a deadly militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, India suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) for the first time since the treaty’s inception in 1960. India blamed Pakistan for supporting the militants, a charge Pakistan denies. The treaty, originally brokered by the World Bank, has long governed water-sharing between the two nuclear neighbours. This unprecedented suspension has heightened concerns about regional stability, given Pakistan's reliance on these waters for agriculture and power generation. Pakistan views India's move as an act of aggression, preparing to challenge the decision through international channels such as the World Bank and the International Court of Justice.

Water Scarcity: A Catalyst for Conflict

Water scarcity arises from natural and human-induced factors, including mismanagement, over-extraction, and pollution. In regions where water resources cross borders, poor governance and cooperation often exacerbate disputes. The UN reports that nearly 40% of the world's population experiences water scarcity, a number expected to increase, intensifying competition and displacement, especially in politically fragile regions.

Prospects for Cooperation

Despite significant challenges, water scarcity also presents opportunities for cooperation. Shared water resources necessitate collaborative management, fostering dialogue and trust among nations. Successful cooperation is exemplified by the historical Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan, and the Senegal River Basin Development Organization in West Africa.

Investment in sustainable water management, infrastructure, and technology can alleviate scarcity and minimise conflict potential. International frameworks and agreements offer negotiation platforms to resolve disputes proactively.

Towards a Future of Water Diplomacy

As the world grapples with climate change and resource scarcity, water is rapidly emerging as a critical geopolitical issue. The shift from oil-centric conflicts to water-focused disputes underscores the urgent need for cooperative management of vital resources. Recognising water’s pivotal role and proactively addressing related tensions can transform potential flashpoints into avenues for peace and sustainable development.