Drought, Deluge and Denial: Water Resilience in a Warming UK

Why our system is not ready for climate extremes, and what must be done now

This is the fifth article in our series examining the findings of the Independent Water Commission’s 2025 report. Here, we focus on the UK’s vulnerability to climate extremes and ask whether the current water system is fit for the future.

Across Britain, extreme weather is becoming more frequent and more intense. In recent years, we have seen severe summer droughts, widespread winter flooding, and river levels that swing from dangerously low to critically high in a matter of days. The Commission’s report is blunt in its assessment: the UK’s water infrastructure, governance, and policies are not prepared for this new reality.

A climate of extremes, not averages

The report makes one thing clear. Climate change is already destabilising the UK’s water cycle. It is not just a distant threat, but a present-day force that is pushing our systems to the brink. Southern England, for instance, faces the prospect of significant water shortages by the 2030s, even in years with average rainfall. Meanwhile, urban centres across the country are seeing an increase in flash flooding due to intense rainfall events that overwhelm ageing drainage networks.

The key issue is not simply that Britain is becoming wetter or drier. It is that weather patterns are becoming more volatile. And yet, the majority of our planning, investment, and risk management continues to be based on historical averages. That approach is no longer suitable.

Infrastructure designed for a different era

Much of the UK’s water infrastructure was built in the 19th and early 20th centuries. These systems were designed for smaller populations and more predictable weather. They were never intended to cope with the pressures of a rapidly warming world.

Drainage and sewage networks in many cities are particularly vulnerable. In London and elsewhere, combined sewer systems are frequently overwhelmed by heavy rainfall. The result is the discharge of untreated sewage into rivers and seas, causing environmental damage and public outcry.

Reservoir storage has not kept pace with population growth or rising demand. No major new public water reservoir has been built in over three decades. Leakage, too, remains a serious concern. The system loses over 2 billion litres of water every day due to leaks — a staggering figure in the context of growing water stress.

The Commission warns that without urgent upgrades, the UK’s water infrastructure will continue to fail under the pressure of climate extremes.

A fragmented and sluggish response

The report does not stop at infrastructure. It also criticises the way the sector is governed. Responsibility for water is divided across multiple agencies, including water companies, Ofwat, the Environment Agency, Defra, and local authorities. This fragmented structure makes coordinated, strategic action difficult to achieve.

Too often, regulation rewards short-term cost savings rather than long-term resilience. Water companies are not consistently incentivised to invest in climate adaptation. Local authorities are tasked with managing flood risk and planning surface water drainage, but many lack the powers or funding to implement effective solutions.

The result is a system that struggles to respond at pace or scale. Good practice exists in some areas, but it is not being adopted widely or consistently.

The consequences of inaction

Perhaps the report’s most powerful argument is its critique of what it calls a culture of avoidance. Political leaders, it suggests, have not been willing to confront the true scale of the challenge. Public messaging often focuses on individual water-saving behaviours or short-term restrictions, rather than addressing deeper structural problems.

There is still a widespread belief that the UK, being a rainy country, cannot possibly face serious water shortages. This perception is outdated and misleading. Rainfall may be plentiful at times, but it is unevenly distributed and increasingly concentrated into fewer, heavier events. That makes it harder to capture and store for future use.

The Commission describes the prevailing approach as one of “institutional denial”. It is a harsh term, but one that seems justified. Without decisive action, the risks will continue to grow, and the cost of adaptation will only increase.

A roadmap for urgent reform

The good news is that solutions are available. The Commission sets out a clear and achievable set of recommendations. Among them:

• All water companies should be required to produce and deliver resilience plans with binding targets and meaningful penalties for failure.

• Investment in infrastructure must be accelerated, with a focus on leakage reduction, smart metering, new reservoirs, and upgraded drainage networks.

• Nature-based solutions should be integrated into mainstream planning, including wetland restoration, reforestation, and sustainable urban drainage.

• A new, independent Water Resilience Body should be established to coordinate efforts, set standards, and hold stakeholders accountable.

• Public communication must improve, helping consumers understand the true risks and their role in reducing demand.

• Regulators such as Ofwat and the Environment Agency must be given greater powers to enforce resilience objectives.

No time to lose

The message from the report is clear. The longer we delay, the fewer options we will have. Infrastructure projects take years to deliver. Ecosystems take time to recover. Changing behaviours and building trust in public institutions is not something that can be done overnight.

The UK has already experienced warning signs. From the drought of 2022 to the devastating floods of 2024, we are seeing what happens when climate extremes meet underprepared systems. These are not isolated events. They are part of a wider trend.

The Commission refers to this as a “watershed moment”, and it is right to do so. We are standing at a point of choice. We can act with urgency and coordination, or we can continue to drift towards deeper crisis.

Time to shift the narrative

This fifth article in our Water Commission series asks readers to consider the bigger picture. This is not just about pipes and puddles. It is about resilience, equity, and how we value and protect one of our most vital resources.

There is no single fix. But with the right political leadership, clear regulatory direction, and meaningful community engagement, the UK can build a water system that is truly prepared for the century ahead.

Next week, we will explore the social dimensions of water resilience. As climate pressures rise, who bears the burden, who benefits, and how can fairness be built into the UK’s water future?